On Friday, Chinese authorities announced the arrest of a US citizen who runs a major think tank in Myanmar for allegedly endangering China’s national security.
The New York Times reported that Min Zin, executive director of the Institute for Myanmar Strategy and Policy (ISP-Myanmar), disappeared on June 3 while visiting the city of Kunming in Yunnan province, citing sources with knowledge of the arrest. Another source told Reuters that Min Zin was “arrested at Kunming airport about two weeks ago.”
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson later confirmed the arrest, saying that Min Zin, a former student activist who participated in pro-democracy protests in 1988, had “been placed under criminal detention by competent authorities in accordance with law on suspicion of espionage and endangering China’s national security.”
The US government has not commented in detail on Min Zin’s arrest, citing the sensitivity of the issue. “We are aware of reports regarding a U.S. citizen detained in China,” the Times quoted the U.S. State Department as saying. “Whenever a U.S. citizen is arrested, we work to provide appropriate consular assistance.”
As the Washington Post noted in its report on Min Zin’s arrest, it is rare for China to arrest U.S. citizens for national security reasons. In late 2024, Beijing released three US citizens held in a prisoner exchange; one of them was detained for drug trafficking, while the other two were accused of espionage.
A political science graduate of the University of California, Berkeley, Min Zin helped found ISP-Myanmar in 2016, which describes itself as “an independent, nonpartisan, nongovernmental think tank” that “supports the advancement of democracy, good governance, federal principles and practices, and basic human rights.” ISP-Myanmar was initially based in Yangon, but moved out of the country following the February 2021 military coup, which abruptly closed available space for independent media and civil society groups. She is currently based in Chiang Mai, a city in northern Thailand, a long-time hub for exiles from Myanmar.
Strangely, Min Zin’s arrest came a day after Myanmar authorities arrested an American businessman who ran a security consultancy in the country.
Adam Castillo, former director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar, was arrested at an airport on Thursday after traveling to the country, Reuters reported, citing two people briefed on the matter. Castillo was abroad to promote a book he recently published about living through the 2021 coup.
While there is no evidence that the arrests are related, the timing is curious to say the least. The fact that the two arrests took place just before Myanmar regime leader Min Aung Hlaing begins a five-day state visit to China, during which he is expected to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping, will only fuel speculation.
As the Washington Post noted, Min Zin and Castillo “have been outspoken commentators on China’s growing influence in Myanmar’s civil war” and have “visited Washington periodically to share their views with policymakers and lawmakers.”
It is true that Myanmar-China relations constitute one of ISP-Myanmar’s three main research areas, and it operates a China Desk that publishes detailed analysis of Chinese infrastructure projects in Myanmar, including all projects grouped under the umbrella of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. It has also published reports analyzing China’s response to the 2021 coup, the impact of conflicts in Myanmar on Chinese infrastructure investment, and China’s influence in areas of Kachin State with significant deposits of rare earth minerals.
His analysis of Chinese investments in Myanmar is relatively measured and certainly does not engage in the overtly anti-China fear-mongering that is sometimes seen among opponents of the Myanmar military (and even within the security establishment itself).
Nonetheless, one would imagine that ISP-Myanmar’s detailed analysis of China’s investment footprint in Myanmar, in addition to Min Zin’s good connections in Washington, could pose a serious enough threat to Chinese authorities that they might seek his arrest. It is also possible that the arrest, like past examples of Chinese “hostage diplomacy,” is primarily motivated by China’s evolving relations with the United States and other Western countries.
Whatever the reason for his arrest, it will make people in Myanmar and elsewhere think twice before looking too closely at China’s core strategic interests in Myanmar, Saw Zin Maung Soe, founder of the nonprofit CAN-Myanmar, told the Post.
“Even though we already know that they do not tolerate issues regarding Tibet, Uyghurs or Tiananmen Square,” he told the newspaper. “We now have to ask ourselves if ‘Myanmar’ is also on this list.”
Castillo’s case is more puzzling. Although the former U.S. Marine has at times criticized Chinese influence in Myanmar, he has also, for this reason, been a strong advocate of U.S. engagement with the military junta and a persistent critic of U.S. sanctions policy. Last year, during a trip to the White House, Reuters reported that he suggested U.S. officials normalize relations with the military junta over access to Kachin state’s rare earth sources.
In other words, Castillo’s views are not far removed from currents of opinion within Myanmar’s security establishment, which have long been wary of China’s growing influence in the country and would likely like little more than a normalization of relations with Washington and the lifting of U.S. sanctions.
For their part, the Burmese army’s propaganda accounts on social media have put forward their own explanation for Castillo’s arrest. The Views of Myanmar account on [sic] of certain member companies for personal gain.
Much like the Chinese government’s vague statement about Min Zin, this obviously cannot be taken literally. But it seems likely that Castillo’s arrest is about more than his occasional criticism of China, whether in terms of his activities in Myanmar or the broader trajectory of U.S.-Myanmar relations.