There is a scenario in which Republicans find themselves in a much different situation right now. Imagine a United States where Donald Trump doesn’t sabotage the American economy with tariffs, health care cuts, and a war in the Middle East.
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It is estimated that inflation could have fallen by now and that US growth would have been 5% if Trump had done nothing.
The president didn’t just create an economic crisis out of thin air.
He also created a political crisis within his own party.
The economic crisis opened the door for Democrats to regain control of the U.S. Senate in November, and Trump added fuel to the fire when he packaged the Republican nomination for the Texas Senate and handed it to the state’s loyalist attorney general, Ken Paxton, who was beset by scandal.
In electoral politics, there is a ripple effect when a political party is forced to defend a candidate in a state that has provided them with reliable support.
One of the arguments made by Republicans in Texas and nationally for months against Paxton’s nomination was that nominating such a weak candidate in a red state would cause the party to spend less to support candidates in other Senate battlegrounds.
The Republican nightmare scenario seems about to come true.