Thailand and Cambodia have agreed “to pursue a series of confidence-building measures to strengthen a fragile ceasefire along their shared border, following yesterday’s talks in the Philippines.”
The meeting between Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet took place on the sidelines of the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whose government hosted the meeting as chairman of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), was also present at the meeting.
The meeting did not result in any major breakthroughs – none were likely expected given the current poor state of relations between Bangkok and Phnom Penh – but both sides agreed to resume discussions on border-related issues.
Speaking at a news conference after the meeting, Anutin said he and Manet had agreed to instruct their foreign ministers to continue discussions to advance “practical confidence-building measures, starting with measures on which we have common ground.”
“These measures would be essential to restore trust and gradually rebuild our bilateral relations,” he said, according to Nikkei Asia. “Thailand and Cambodia must move forward together, step by step, in the same direction. »
Relations between the two countries remain at an all-time low following the outbreak of armed conflict in July and December last year, which involved Thai airstrikes and heavy exchanges of artillery and rockets across their disputed land border. Although the two sides agreed to a new ceasefire at the end of December, soldiers remain deployed across large areas of the border and the situation in all areas remains tense.
At yesterday’s press conference, Marcos said the two foreign ministers agreed to exercise restraint and engage in constructive dialogue. “This was possible thanks to the very clear and fervent conviction of the two leaders that now is the time for peace and no longer for war,” he said. He also confirmed that the ASEAN Observer Team (AOT) would continue to monitor the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire on the border, with its mandate extended for another three months until July.
The talks come two days after Thailand canceled a 2001 memorandum of understanding with Cambodia regarding joint offshore energy exploration in the Gulf of Thailand. The MoU establishes a framework for discussions on joint oil and gas exploration in areas where the two countries’ maritime claims overlap, as well as for the demarcation of maritime boundaries.
Anutin has denied that the cancellation had anything to do with the border conflict, although clamors for its cancellation have become particularly loud as the conflict has intensified over the past year. Cambodia expressed disappointment at the cancellation and said it would seek a formal resolution of overlapping claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
It remains to be seen whether yesterday’s meeting between Anutin and Hun Manet will result in a decisive breakthrough. The two sides agreed to a ceasefire last July, ending the first armed conflict. But neither that nor the high-profile peace deal signed in the presence of US President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on the sidelines of the last ASEAN summit in October could prevent renewed fighting in December.
That said, any decision to resume negotiations is good news. The two prime ministers have not met since the Malaysia ceasefire, while the Joint Bilateral Boundaries Commission (JBC), established under a separate memorandum of understanding in 2000, has not met since October. Meanwhile, the border between the two countries remains mostly closed, significantly hampering trade.
Conditions on the Thai side may now be more conducive to peace talks than in December. Anutin was decisively re-elected in February after encouraging and exploiting the rise of nationalist sentiment that accompanied the conflict. He is therefore in a stronger political position, if he wishes, to resist the nationalist political lobbies that have prevented previous Thai governments from compromising on the border issue. The Thai army’s seizure of small, symbolically significant pockets of territory along the border during the December fighting also appeased these lobbies to some extent.
Whether the same applies to Cambodia remains to be seen. The economic consequences of the conflict are now beginning to be felt in Phnom Penh, and it is likely that the Cambodian government does not want to see a new conflict break out. At the same time, Thailand’s occupation of territory along the border, an issue repeatedly raised by the Cambodian government in recent months, could remain an ongoing point of contention if not resolved somehow.
At yesterday’s press conference, Manet reiterated Cambodia’s position that “the border cannot be modified or determined by force or by accomplished fact. He also called for the immediate implementation of the joint statement issued alongside the December ceasefire, particularly the resumption of surveying and demarcation work under the JBC.
“Cambodia believes that this is a peaceful path to a fair solution for both sides,” he said.