There has been an interesting theory floating around that one of the reasons Donald Trump improved his standing with voters aged 18-34 in 2024 was that the younger people in that age group weren’t old enough to remember how bad Trump’s first term was, so they were susceptible to Trump’s campaign style of lies and promises that will never come true.
After enjoying Trump’s full treatment for more than a year of his second administration, these voters returned to the Democrats in force.
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Policy reported on a new poll of young voters from the nonpartisan Generation Lab:
It shows that young Americans plan to vote Democratic in November by a margin of 52 percent to 19 percent. Broken down by party, the data indicates the GOP has a significant basic problem: Only 58 percent of young Republicans say they will vote for the GOP — with nearly a third choosing “neither” or “won’t vote.” In contrast, 85 percent of young Democrats intend to run for their party.
Just like in 2024, deep dissatisfaction with the state of the economy is fueling anger against the ruling party. Today, 81% of young Americans consider the American economic situation to be bad or terrible, including 68% of Republicans. The younger the age group, the more optimism decreases.
President Donald Trump leads the way, with 41% of voters who rate the economy negatively naming him as the main culprit, plus 9% choosing congressional Republicans. But it’s not just about the Republican Party: An additional 31 percent point the finger at corporate greed. Only 6% blame Joe Biden or congressional Democrats.
Young voters are not buying the Biden Derangement Syndrome of the Trump administration.
What is deeply interesting is who young voters will potentially support for president in 2028.
Kamala Harris leads all candidates surveyed with 22%. In second place is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with 15%. Vice President JD Vance is third with 8%. In fourth place, there is a three-way tie at 5% between Pete Buttigieg, RFK Jr. and Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA).
Among young Republicans only, JD Vance leads RFK Jr. 25 to 13 percent. Kamala Harris is in third place among young Republicans with 11%.
Kamala Harris’ position could be a real boost, or it could be name recognition from her 2024 campaign. I think we’ll see.
What is clear is that candidates like Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, who might appeal to older Democrats, might struggle to gain support from younger people.
JD Vance appears dead in the water with the youth vote, and the damage Trump does to this group of voters could be catastrophic for Republicans in 2026 and impossible to overcome in 2028.
What do you think? Are young voters firmly back in the Democratic camp? Let’s talk about it in the comments below.