An aerial view of houses in San Francisco, August 27, 2025.
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After falling below 6%, their lowest level in several years, mortgage rates reversed their trend on Monday, reaching their highest level in two weeks.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan increased 13 basis points to 6.12%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It fell to a recent low of 5.99% on February 23 and stayed there for most of the week.
This drop was good news as the very important spring real estate market gets underway. Would-be buyers have been sidelined by high property prices and concerns about the broader economy. Mortgage rates crossing the 5% range have broken an emotional barrier for some, suggesting buyers may jump at the opportunity.
Mortgage rates loosely track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which rose above 4% on Monday. The growing conflict with Iran has caused oil prices to soar, increasing inflation fears and pushing yields higher.
Oil prices, however, may not be what’s driving mortgage rates higher, according to Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
“In fact, compared to the CME close at 3 p.m. Friday, bonds remained flat until 7 a.m. By that time, oil had already seen almost all of its volatility for the day,” Graham said in emailed comments to CNBC. “The crux of the bond sell-off occurred in a vacuum, which STRONGLY suggests that Friday’s yields were dragged down by month-end buying and that this morning’s sell-off is positioning for a ‘new month’.”
That highlights the possibility that the bond market views Monday’s move as a technical rebound at the 4% level of 10-year Treasury notes, Graham said. That means it could be harder for rates to fall without significant motivation from economic data, which is plentiful this week, including the monthly jobs report due Friday.