Shoppers carry bags at Broadway Plaza in Walnut Creek, California, United States, Monday, December 16, 2024. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release personal spending figures on December 20.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to total between 265,000 and 365,000 positions this year, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, the National Retail Federation said Thursday.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay said during the retail group’s conference call that these hiring expectations “reflect the softening and softening of the labor market.” That’s a significant drop from last year, when retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers, the retail trade group said.
Some companies may have hired seasonal workers early to support October trade events, but retailers have largely tried to limit spending as they deal with higher costs from tariffs, said Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist.
The major industry group’s forecast offers the latest insight into the jobs market as the record government shutdown drags on and leads to fewer government reports on economic data, such as unemployment and inflation. This has led businesses and economists to rely instead on data from private companies or organizations.
Earlier Thursday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff announcements climbed in October to 153,074, a jump of 183% from September and 175% from the same month last year. This is the highest level on record in October since 2003, and 2025 was the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.
Separately, payroll processing company ADP reported net employment growth of 42,000 in October, reversing two straight months of losses in the private sector.
Higher spending, lower hiring
Even with lower levels of seasonal staffing, the NRF is optimistic that holiday spending will be strong. He said he expects holiday spending to hit a record of between $1.1 trillion and $1.2 trillion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, which would mark the first time the total has exceeded $1 trillion.
This would represent year-over-year growth of 3.7% to 4.2% from the previous holiday season, a slight decrease from last year’s sales growth rate of 4.3%. The NRF forecast excludes car dealerships, gas stations and restaurants.
Even with low consumer confidence, a prolonged government shutdown, recurring tariffs and price sensitivity due to inflation, Shay said consumers defied expectations and continued to spend.
“In all honesty, this has been somewhat of a surprise given where we thought we might be in April,” he said.
He said the trade group expects that dynamic to persist through the key holiday shopping period. Households typically cut back at other times of the year or in other parts of their budget to make it a holiday season, he explained.
Even as consumers continue to spend, the retail sector has taken a cautious stance on hiring – a fact reflected in the NRF’s forecast for seasonal workers. This is the fourth slowest year for retail hiring since at least 2000, behind only 2009, 2010 and 2012, several years following the Great Recession.
Mathews told CNBC in an interview that the slow hiring environment comes down to one word: uncertainty.
“The only thing businesses do when they’re in uncertain environments is put things on hold,” he told CNBC in an interview.
During the NRF conference call Thursday, Mathews said the U.S. economy no longer needs the same level of job creation as before because of demographic and political changes, including the retirement of baby boomers and President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration.
Still, he added, the level of hiring and business investment will be an important indicator to watch in the coming year.
Right now, he said, a flood of investment in artificial intelligence is “a huge boon to the economy.” But he added that “maybe it’s masking some cracks.”
“We need to keep a close eye on how businesses are feeling and what remains an uncertain environment,” he said.