GMC SUV parked in front of a Buick GMC dealer in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, March 22, 2025.
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty images
DETROIT – Uncertainty surrounding American regulations on prices, electric vehicles and other problems related to the automobile has given sales of new cars a surprising boost before the fourth quarter, according to a new analysis of the industry.
COX Automotive raised its forecasts of American sales of new vehicles 2025 to 16.1 million on Thursday, from a previous range of 15.6 million to 15.7 million due to a stronger demand this year. It would be up around 16 million vehicles sold in the country in 2024.
COX updated forecasts are online with other industry estimates of 16.1 million JD Power units and 16.2 million Edmunds.
COX analysts said that resilient sales – which should increase by 4.6% compared to the same period last year – are due to consumers who decided not to wait to buy a new vehicle for fear of higher prices.
The first bump occurred earlier in the year in the announcements of President Donald Trump’s prices. This was more recently followed by an increase in sales of electric vehicles before the end of a federal credit up to $ 7,500 for the purchase of these vehicles which will be eliminated at the end of this month.
“The role of politicians has been a positive story for the new vehicle market so far, sales that operate well before last year’s pace,” said Cox Automotive’s main economist Charlie Chesbrough, during a webinar on Thursday. “A solid stock market supports the demand and uncertainty of vehicles around higher prices. [are] Bring many buyers of potential vehicles to buy as soon as possible. “”
Sales traction has benefited the American automotive industry so far this year, but Chesbrough said that the rate of sales – currently at 16.3 million – should slow down to the fourth quarter and next year.
Automobile actions
“We expect the sales of the fourth quarter to slow down, because the request for EV and plug-ins drop once the tax credits expire and the tariff costs are more integrated into the prices for the execution of manufacturers in 2025,” he said.
Robust sales, as well as regulatory changes eliminating energy efficiency fines and providing companies’ modification tax services, have helped certain car manufacturers compensate for part of the higher tariff costs, according to COX analysts.
Regarding sales, Cox predicts General Motors The most of the resilient demand in the third quarter benefited, with an increase of 1 percentage point on the American market share compared to the same period a year earlier. The Detroit car manufacturer is followed by Toyota Motor And Hyundai Motor, the two expected an increase of 0.6 percentage point, and per Ford engineScheduled to increase by 0.4 percentage points.
“The larger ones become larger, while smaller and more specialized brands block or lose actions,” said Chesbrough. “It may be that having more product offers on more segments is essential to capture more buyers on the current market.”
The smallest car manufacturers like Nissan Motor, Volkswagen, Subaru and TeslaIt is estimated that everyone has lost market share until the third quarter of this year, according to Cox. Jeep parent Stellantis Also continues to fight in a decrease in sales of one year, said Cox.
Many car manufacturers are expected to publish their sales in the third quarter from next week, followed by the third quarter results reports from the end of next month.