Florida went from the “Hanging Chad” swing state that made George W. Bush president in the 2000 election to a reliably red state that is only second to Texas in need and value behind the Republicans.
Democrats went through a period during the Obama years where they thought they could bring Florida back into their fold, but for a variety of reasons, not limited to voter suppression and gerrymandering, Republicans solidified their hold on power in the Sunshine State.
The main driver of Florida Democrats’ victory was not increased Democratic turnout among the base. Republicans have a 1.5 million voter advantage in the state and are better financed.
Democrats have won special elections in Florida since Trump returned to power because Hispanic voters, particularly Puerto Rican voters, returned to Democrats after switching to Trump in 2024.
The most important factor is independents. In Florida, Democrats’ outperformance in the special election was fueled by Independents.
Trump and his party have seen their support among independents plummet, and independents are showing their dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory by voting for Democratic candidates.
All of this means that Democrats have the opportunity to target several vulnerable House Republicans in Florida, and it appears they’re not going to let it get away.
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