Jamie Dimon says ‘be careful’ as high asset prices add to economic risks: ‘My anxiety is high’

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concern Monday about the U.S. economic situation, citing high asset prices and a competitive environment in the banking sector that remind him of the years before the 2008 crisis.

Even as economists tout the Trump administration’s tax and deregulatory policies as boosting economic growth this year, Dimon said during an annual briefing for investors that his own tendency is to think about what could go wrong when expectations are high.

“My own view is that people are starting to feel a little comfortable thinking that these are realities, these high asset prices and these high volumes, and that we won’t have any problems,” said Dimon, who was dressed in black and wearing a splint on one of his hands.

Inevitably, Dimon said, the business cycle will reverse, leading to a wave of borrower defaults that will broadly affect lenders and often impact sectors few expect, he said.

“There will be a cycle one day…I don’t know what confluence of events will cause this cycle. My anxiety is great about that,” Dimon said. “The fact that asset prices are high doesn’t reassure me. In fact, I think it adds to the risk.”

While fears about how artificial intelligence models from Anthropic and OpenAI could disrupt myriad industries, particularly software companies, have roiled markets in recent weeks, the entire S&P 500 is not far from its all-time high.

At the same time, concerns about lending to software companies, at the heart of AI concerns, hit private lenders after Blue Owl spooked markets last week when it announced it would have to sell assets to satisfy investors clamoring to exit one of its funds.

This episode, which dragged down the shares of large alternative asset managers, notably Apollo, KKR And black stonehas led some market observers to wonder whether the start of a broader credit slowdown has begun.

“There’s always a surprise in a credit cycle,” Dimon said. “The surprise was often which sector” was most affected, he said. “Utilities and phone companies were not expected in 2008 and 2009, and this time it may be software, thanks to AI.”

Dimon also said he agreed with his deputies’ comments on private credit made earlier at the investor event.

Troy Rohrbaugh, the firm’s co-head of commercial and investment banking, said he didn’t think the problems were likely to be limited to private credit lenders, but rather would be “broader.”

“At this point, it seems a little isolated in a handful of situations, but that could very easily change, and we’re prepared for that,” Rohrbaugh said.

In response to a question from veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo, Dimon said the current environment was similar to the three years before the 2008 financial crisis in that “everyone is making a lot of money, people are using leverage, there are no limits.”

The JPMorgan chief said some financial firms were “doing stupid things” of chasing interest income, generated by lending and investing activities, although he did not name the companies doing so.

“You feel stupid when everyone is making money and everyone is awesome… it feels really good,” Dimon said.

“And then when I think about all the factors that are happening,” Dimon added, “I take a deep breath and I say ‘pay attention’.”

Dimon also addressed the recurring issue of CEO succession at JPMorgan, which he built into the world’s largest bank by market capitalization during his two decades in office.

Although he has often given a specific deadline for how many years he has left as CEO, he avoided doing so on Monday.

“I was told to say that very specifically,” Dimon said, drawing laughter from the analysts present. “I’ve been here a few years as CEO, and maybe a few years after that as executive chairman.”