A pedestrian walks past a Domino’s in San Francisco on December 9, 2025.
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From Domino’s Pizza According to Applebee’s, restaurant chains report that sales slowed in March as gas prices climbed.
The war between the United States and Iran has led to a national average gas price above $4.50 per gallon – and contributed to a new record high for consumer confidence. As consumers pay more for their fuel, they are trying to save money in other areas. A survey of drivers conducted by Numerator found that 43% of respondents have cut back on dining out and takeout since gas prices began to rise.
“March and April were quieter than January and February, especially with that value-driven consumer we saw staying home more often or eating out at less expensive alternatives, and we attribute that to gas prices in particular and the economy in general,” John Peyton, CEO of Applebee’s and IHOP’s parent company. Restaurant brandstold CNBC. “We know that when gas prices start to go above $3.50, that affects that customer for us.”
This represents an ongoing risk for some restaurant chains if gas prices remain high in the coming months.
To attract budget-conscious consumers, Applebee’s is accelerating the rollout of its all-you-can-eat special. Starting Monday, diners can eat as many shrimp, boneless wings, ribs and fries as they want for $15.99.
Across the restaurant industry, traffic fell 2.3% in March compared to last year, according to Black Box Intelligence. But not all channels felt the same crack.
Chipotle reported surprise same-store sales growth for its first quarter despite weaker sales at the end of the reporting period.
“In March, our trends softened slightly as the Iranian conflict began,” CFO Adam Rymer said on the company’s earnings conference call in late April, adding that sales have since accelerated.
Gasoline prices above $6 per gallon are displayed at Chevron and Shell stations in Monterey Park, California, April 30, 2026.
Frederick J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images
On the other hand, Shake the cabin CEO Rob Lynch said the burger chain saw relatively consistent sales during the first quarter.
“We haven’t seen any significant changes,” he said during the company’s earnings conference call Thursday. “We saw a slight slowdown during the second half of March, but not at a significant rate.”
And owner of Outback Steakhouse Bloomin’ Brands, Wendy’s And Soft green all reported that their sales improved sequentially in March compared to the start of the quarter, largely thanks to a respite from winter storms. Despite this, all three companies saw traffic declines in the first three months of the year.
How restaurants are responding
So far, rising gas prices are mostly affecting spending among lower-income consumers, a cohort that was already feeling the pressure of higher costs, from rent to grocery bills.
“Obviously, when gas prices are high, which is the central issue that we’re all seeing in the news right now, gas prices and inflation, it’s going to have a disproportionate impact on low-income consumers,” McDonald’s said CEO Chris Kempczinski during the company’s earnings conference call Thursday. “So we expect the pressures to continue.”
McDonald’s reported same-store sales growth of 3.7% in the first quarter, driven by increased spending by U.S. customers at its restaurants. The fast-food giant opted for a dumbbell approach: value offers for cash-strapped consumers and full-price promotions for higher-income customers.
Some CEOs see rising gas prices as an opportunity to capture more market share as the overall restaurant spending pie shrinks.
“We’ve seen our market share accelerate, which obviously means the casual dining sector is shrinking or slowing down,” Kevin Hochman, CEO of Chili’s owner. Brinker Internationalsaid in an interview. “It really started with the geopolitical events and then obviously the gas prices that followed.”
For several days in late April, Chili’s saw fewer customers, for example buying fewer alcoholic drinks or skipping appetizers and desserts. Still, Hochman remains optimistic that Chili’s will continue to win over customers with its approach to value.
“I think strong players will get stronger,” he said.
International restaurant brands CEO Josh Kobza agrees.
“Overall, when you look at the first quarter, there was no sort of sequential deceleration in the total. [quick-service restaurant] performance,” Kobza said. “What seems most interesting to me is the dispersion of the results. There are some concepts that work really well, and others that struggle.”
He cited the performance of Burger King in the United States as an example. The RBI-owned burger chain reported same-store sales growth of 5.8%, outpacing the same-store sales of rivals McDonald’s and Wendy’s during the quarter.
“I would say that our results are much more influenced by the places where we are doing a very good job than, I would say, by the big variations due to macroeconomic factors so far,” Kobza added.