In midterm elections in which control of all or part of Congress returns to the president’s party, a common pattern emerges.
The party out of power grows stronger in the hypothetical midterm election as the year approaches Election Day.
A president is not on the midterm ballot, but his popularity and perception of the state of the country affect how voters vote in a midterm election.
The perception of Donald Trump’s performance and the current situation in the country is not good.
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A new survey from Quinnipiac University revealed:
Thirty-eight percent of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 56 percent disapprove, a figure virtually unchanged from the March 9, 2026 Quinnipiac University poll.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the economy, 38 percent of voters approve, while 58 percent disapprove. Trump’s approval for his handling of the economy matches the approval he received in the October 22, 2025 Quinnipiac University poll, and is the lowest approval on the economy he has ever received.
When it comes to Trump’s foreign policy, 36% of voters approve, while 59% disapprove. In the March 9 Quinnipiac University poll, 40 percent approved and 57 percent disapproved.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the situation with Iran, 34 percent of voters approve, while 59 percent disapprove. In the March 9 Quinnipiac University poll, 38 percent approved and 57 percent disapproved.
Depending on the issue, Trump’s numbers match historic lows or decline, which certainly impacts the congressional wildcard vote.
You might think that if the Democrats are doing well, it’s because their base is more motivated than the Republicans’.
However, here is what Quinnipiac discovered:
If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would like to see the Democratic Party take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while 40 percent would like to see the Republican Party take control of the House.
Among independents, 57 percent would like to see the Democratic Party take control, while 26 percent would like to see the Republican Party take control, and 17 percent express no opinion.
It’s not Democrats who are fueling the blue wave, if it comes, but independents who have shifted to supporting Democratic candidates.
If Democrats continue to grow or maintain this generic lead in the elections, history shows they will have a strong chance of winning back the House. If the lead continues to grow, it will suggest growing danger for House Republicans, and it will also suggest that Republican seats in the Senate could be at risk as well.
The main takeaway from this data is that independents give Democrats an even stronger position in the midterm elections.
What do you think? Are Democrats on track for a midterm victory? Share your thoughts in the comments below.