Ford Mustang at a used car dealership in Montebello, California on May 5, 2025.
Frederick J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images
DETROIT — Used vehicle prices are expected to rise this year, but at a historically flat rate, according to automotive data and information company Cox Automotive.
Cox forecast Thursday that wholesale prices for its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index will end this year 2% higher than in December 2025. The index tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions.
This year’s increase would compare with increases of 0.4% in each of the past two years, following declines of 7% and almost 15% in 2023 and 2022, respectively, due to price inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic. Used vehicle prices during this period increased at historically high rates of 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020.
Overall price stability is a win for potential car buyers. However, prices for used vehicles remain higher than before the pandemic. Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices, but they have not fallen as quickly as wholesale prices in recent years.
The average change in the index at the end of each year is an increase of about 2%, according to Cox data going back to 1998. This excludes the outlier years of 2021 and 2022.
Prices fluctuate from month to month due to seasonality of sales and other factors. A steady monthly movement of the index over the course of the year is only 0.2%, Cox said.
“As we head into 2026, a few positive indicators are emerging: New and used auto loan rates have fallen to their lowest levels in a year, and consumers will soon see increased tax refunds hit their wallets,” Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive, said in a statement. “As this unfolds, we expect to see stronger demand in the automotive market early in the year.”
Year-over-year used vehicle sales are expected to fall 0.9% to 38.3 million in 2026, according to Cox. This forecast includes 20.3 million used vehicle retail sales, a decrease of 0.7%.